United Kingdom · Tax regime
The reported UHNW departure wave and the policy reaction
Context entry, not a programme. Included because the 'exodus' figures drive a great deal of bad advice and the underlying data is contested.
Henley & Partners and New World Wealth reported a net loss of roughly 16,500 UK millionaires in 2025 (some USD 91.8bn of wealth), more than double the ~7,500 reported for 2024 and the steepest annual outflow on their record. Those numbers moved markets and politics. They are also disputed: a forensic review by Tax Policy Associates in July 2025 found definitions shifted and figures did not reconcile, and the 2026 edition of the Henley report itself acknowledged that other studies found departure rates among high earners were 'modest and concentrated in specific circumstances'.
The facts
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- The headline exodus figures come from a firm that sells investment migration services. That is not disqualifying, but it is a conflict, and the methodology has not survived independent scrutiny intact.
- Henley's own 2026 report walked back the framing. Media outlets continued running the original numbers anyway.
- Do not let the exodus narrative drive the decision. The UK reform is severe enough on its own facts — the 4-year FIG cliff and the residence-based IHT tail are real, verifiable and quantifiable. Base the analysis on those, not on migration counts.
- The policy reaction is live but unformed: a GBP 5m invite-only investor visa is circulating, and Autumn Budget 2025 trailed a 'tax offer' for high-talent arrivals with no detail published since. Neither is bankable.